
(Wrote this last night. Bit rushed, shows. Some sweeping generalisations, but stand by broader points made.)
First, azaadi is not an issue - nobody takes it seriously beyond a point. Everyone knows it'll never happen. It's just a metaphor for 'We don't like the army, which is killing civilians'.
Second, poverty isn't an issue - the J&K economy isn't doing too badly, the per capita GDP in J&K is higher than in UP. Haven't heard of starvation deaths in Kashmir.
The average Indian doesn't understand the issue. The causes are a deep-rooted bias and a lack of education, especially in North India (you'll hear the most belligerent voices here), which also has a culture of violence (think khap). What he brings to the table is a deep understanding of cricket and Bollywood, and hatred of Pakistan. As long as the Kashmir solution doesn't include giving it away to Pakistan, he's fine. Strangely, the under-20 guys I discuss Kashmir with seem to be more rational and have a better understanding of SE Asian geo-politics.
The US doesn't care about the issue, as long as Bin Laden or his pals don't show up (and India keeps doing well economically).
Pakistan doesn't care about the issue - they'reis in the ICU, economically. I needn't even get into the civil war, the assassinated politicians, etc. etc. I don't think they're interested either, they're on auto-pilot Kashmir-wise. Soundbytes from old rhetoric lessons.
There's just one issue.
Human rights abuses. By the security forces, and by the terrorists. There is no other issue that can’t be solved or ignored.
The army is incapable of handling civilian rebellion. Whether in Kashmir, or in the North East. They're not trained for it. And you can't blame the average jawan - one, he's not very educated and has some biases, and two, he didn't do a PR course while training.
It's the CRPF's job to handle civilians anyway. Armies fight wars.
The terrorist is worse than the army, because you don't know who he is. So far, besides killing 200 pandits and driving the rest out, they've also killed 600 Kashmiri politicians for participating in the elections, and killed or cut off ears/noses of countless 'collaborators'.
We should not repeal terror laws entirely, we’re not there yet. Instead, build in a zero-tolerance policy towards human rights abuses (in phases – can’t happen in one day), start proper training and encourage use of non-lethal weapons to control unarmed crowds (rubber bullets, sonic guns, etc.) A PR department too. And tons of civilian surveillance equipment.
Should the Indian army should bomb terrorist camps in POK, or at least start incursions into Pakistani territory? Easier said than done of course, because of their nuclear capability blah blah blah, and an almost mutinious army. But a clear message does need to go out.
One solution could be to do it together with the Americans and the Pakistanis (the non-ISI part:), a tri-lateral force. The current system doesn't work too well, so why not?
Talk to moderate voices, even extremists. I think Yasin Malik and Sajjad Lone are sensible guys. Keep up the support for Omar Abdullah, I'm convinced he's the right guy to lead Kashmir out of chaos. And the Kashmiris elected him, never mind Mehbooba Mufti's allegations (in fact some think she has a role in the recent unrest, since elections are around the corner).
At the end of the day India’s fundamentally a civilised country, never mind the occasional Modi who crawls out of the woodwork. We’re peace-loving, practical, inclusive. Which is why I think peace is possible, in the next 5 years.
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